About one-third of states throughout the country are expected to have at least 5 percent fewer high school graduates in the 2022-23 school year, according to new data released by the National Center for Education Statistics.
In its report projecting a multitude of education statistics through the year 2022 – including elementary, secondary and college enrollments, graduation rates and teacher projections and education expenditures – the data branch of the Department of Education found that overall, the total number of high school graduates is expected to drop 2 percent between 2009-10 and 2022-23. When broken down between public and private schools, public schools should see a slight increase of 1 percent, while the number of private high school graduates will drop 29 percent.
Keep in mind, however, that this is not describing graduation rates (the percentage of a cohort that successfully graduates in a certain amount of time). Rather, this statistic refers to the number of students who receive "formal recognition from school authorities, by the granting of a diploma, for completing a prescribed course of study."