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Predicting Student Performance on High Stakes Test

If you students were to take your state assessment today, how would they perform? Do students' leaning gains in the classroom relate to high stakes test achievements? Will mathematics and reading targets help students reach specific achievements levels on your state test?

Here in National School District, we implement an accountability system using data from multiple measures to assess student progress and bridge the gap between performance in the classroom and on high stakes tests.

Located south of San Diego and ten miles north of the U.S.-Mexico border. National School District enrolls 6,700 students, 100 percent of whom receive free/reduced price lunches. The student population reflects the city's diverse multiethnic community, with a minority population of over 90 percent.

We use Pearson Digital Learning's SuccessMaker digital courseware to support student learning and standards-based instruction and to assess student programs daily. In conjunction, we implement High Stakes Management to help our district meet NCLB requirements and help all our students achieve proficiency goals.

High Stake Management is an implementation program that provides an explicit link between student performance on state high stakes test and on the SuccessMaker courseware. A key benefit of High Stakes Management is that it allows us to use SuccessMaker data to monitor student performance and determine if students are on target to reach their California Standards Test (CST) goals. We no longer have to wait until the end of the year and hope.

At the outset, we worked with Pearson Digital Learning to determine the statistical relationship between students' SuccessMaker performance data CST scores and to set SuccessMaker target levels for students in grades 2-6. The Result? At each grade level, nearly all out students scored as predicted on the CST.

We then conducted our own statistical analysis to determine the correlation between student performance on specific district assessments and the CST. This data, combined with SuccessMaker data, further strengthens the predictive value.

National School Districts has experienced steady growth on state assessments for the past eight years. The use of High Stakes Management in 2003-04 and 2004-05 provided us with an additional tool for monitoring student achievement of state standards. In 2004-05, we achieved AYP and met our California Academic Performance Index growth target.

With the right data, we can chart an intentional future. We can predict, manage and improve student performance on high stakes tests while promoting the genuine learning envisioned by us all.

About Chris Oram

Chris Oram, EdD, is director of Instructional Technology and Student Assessment for National School Districts, a pre-K-6 district in National City, California

To learn more about the science of predicting student performance, call 1.888.977.7900 or visit